The United Kingdom
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The census having been taken all over the kingdom simultaneously we are able, with the help of our colleagues in Scotland and Ireland, to submit here in summary, subject to any future correction of the unrevised figures, a statement of the population of the whole of the British Isles on the Census day. A provisional return is also added of the number of the army, navy, and merchant seaman known to have been absent on the Census. The enumerated population of the United Kingdom, like that of its capital city, is variously defined for fiscal, statistical, and other purposes, as shown in the following table: The population of the Kingdom is never stationary: it is now increasing, as the returns show, at the rate of about 705 persons daily. In all official returns, it is usual to employ the population in the middle of the year:
with that population the births, deaths, marriages, and other facts are compared, and the following table shows the population of the United Kingdom (including the Islands in the British Seas, and the Army, Navy, and Merchant Seamen abroad),
estimated to the middle of the three Census years 1851, 1861 and 1871, with the intervening rates of increase. In our subsequent Report the estimated populations for the middle of the years will be given exclusive
of the population of the Islands in the British Seas, and of the Army, Navy and Merchant seamen Abroad. POPULATION of the UNITED KINGDOM, including the Islands in the British Seas, and the Army, Navy, and Merchant Seamen Abroad—
estimated to the middle of the years.
The actual increase in the two intervals, each of ten years, shows clearly how much the population has increased in numbers, and how much foster it has increased since 1861 than it did in the previous decenniad. It is deserving of remark that the number of women and girls exceeded the men and boys at home by 925,764; after adding the soldiers and sailors abroad to the men and boys at home the excess of females is 718,566. By a law of nature the sexes at adult ages exist in equal numbers, and accordingly we may expect to find the 718,566 absent males somewhere; unfortunately the recent, Census returns of our own Colonies, or of our kindred United States, distinguishing the sexes, have not yet reached us; nor can we distinguish always in their previous Censuses the proportions belonging respectively to England and to other nations. But the following facts show that the disparities in the sexes probably compensate each other in 1871, as they did ten years ago. Those who seek to extend the sphere of labour for women will find therefore in Australia and America a most fruitful field for such of the sex as are willing to play a part in the foundation of the great States of the future. The emigration of natives of this kingdom has gone on steadily, but at a retarded rate, in the last ten years; thus their number:— When it is considered that emigrants carry away not only their own numbers but the fathers and mothers of future children, it is evident that the decrease of the tide of emigration goes far to account for the increased growth of the population in the last ten years. The American War retarded emigration, while employment at home increase. To the emigrants should be properly added their increase in the interval between the Census periods, while the returning emigrants and the immigrants should be subtracted to get the true increment; but as these corrections operate in opposite directions, the emigrants may be added to the increase at home, and in the natural increase of the English race in the decenniad from 1851 to 1861 was 3,649,471; and in the decenniad from 1861 to 1871 it was 4,199,231. The increase of the English people, calculated in this way, was at the rate of 1.24 per cent. in the first, and 1.35 in the last decenniad. It is evident that although by an infelicity which is now vanishing, the number of our Irish brethren in Ireland decreased, the number of persons of Irish origin increased. The following tables show the relations between the births, deaths, emigrants, and population of the United Kingdom (exclusive of the islands in the British Seas, and The Army, Navy, and Merchant Seamen abroad). It will be borne in mind that the registration of births is defective, and that in Ireland not only the births but the deaths are not all registered. There is also no account of returning emigrants or of immigrants into the several ports of the kingdom. Note.—
Assuming the registered numbers of Births and Deaths in the ten years 1861-70, and also the recorded numbers of Emigrants, to be correct, it follows that the Births in the ten years 1861-70, less the Deaths and Emigrants in the same period, added to the enumerated Population 18(51, would equal the enumerated Population in 1871, less the number of Immigrants in the ten years. The figures in Col. 7, being the difference between the enumerated Population 1871 and the Population estimated by the first method, would represent the Immigration in the ten years 1861-70, of which no record exists, but for the defects in registration of Births and Deaths, and in the Records of Emigration. *
The registration of Births and Deaths in Ireland commenced on 1st January 1864, and is believed to be more defective than the Registration of England and Wales. In order to make up the totals of births and deaths in the 10 years for that division of the United Kingdom it has been assumed that the birth and death-rates were the same there during the earlier years of the decade as during the later years. MEAN ENUMERATED POPULATION, ANNUAL BIRTHS and DEATHS REGISTERED, If a complete registration of births and deaths, of immigrants, and emigrants existed in the United Kingdom, it would be possible after one Census to follow the population year by year; still even in that case a Census is a required at least decennially, for two reasons: (1) as a check equivalent to the taking stock of a merchant, and (2) as a means of determining the population of each town and district growing partly by the excesses of immigration over emigration. But the emigration returns are only kept at ports where there are officers for the purpose, and there is no return at all of immigrants, as the passport system has never been in use in England. There are no means of knowing how many foreigners or even of our fellow countrymen from Scotland or Ireland have entered England, nor how many Englishmen have gone to those parts of the United Kingdom or to other countries. The same observation applies to Ireland and to Scotland, to London, and every town and district. A decennial Census is therefore indispensable; and where the population is liable to great fluctuations, a quinquennial Census, such as is taken in France, is required. In Germany the Census is triennial. In England it has been found for some time that we can calculate for the future on u steady increase of population, at a rate bearing a definite relation to the rates in previous decenniads. The rate was actually less between the ten years 1851-61 than it had been between the previous ten years 1841-51, and now again it has risen to 1.24 per cent, per annum or 13 per cent, in ten years. Should this rate continue the population will double itself in 56 years. The United Kingdom has increased at a slower rate, but the annual rate was more rapid in the last than it had been in the previous ten years; it was between 1861-71 at the rate of .828 per cent, or 8.28 per 1,000 per annum. At this rate the population of the United Kingdom would double itself in 84 years. Here it is assumed that the population increases at the same rate in geometrical progression through a series of years; and if this rate were invariable the population at any future moment could be calculated by a simple formula, as precisely as the position of a planet or a comet in the heavens. But, even if the law of increase in man were as well established as the law of gravitation in the universe, the problem of the future growth of our race involves too many elements to admit of any definite solution. Still we are justified in reasoning on this subject from experience; and as a great nation cannot live merely for the day, it is by necessity driven to forecast in order to provide for the future. That experience warrants us in assuming that the population will increase pretty uniformly for some years to come. A large addition to the population of the kingdom will, it is believed, be hailed generally with satisfaction by the country, as its policy has been practically a policy of progress in numbers; and we shall venture to state very briefly the reasons which appear to confirm the soundness of the popular opinion, in opposition to those who hold that increase of population is in itself an evil. Not so, ever taught the Anglican clergy. Celibacy was exalted in England in the age of monasticism; but marriage, far from being discouraged by the English Church, has since the Reformation been promoted by its services. The true doctrine with its due limitations was luminously defined by one of her most eloquent prelates in the seventeenth century; "Marriage," he says, "is the mother of the world, and preserves kingdoms, and fills cities, and churches, and heaven itself. Celibate, like the fly in the heart of an apple, dwells in a perpetual sweetness, but sits alone, and is confined, and dies in singularity; but marriage, like the useful bee, * * *"1
And in the spirit of this doctrine the English clergy have enforced the text "increase, multiply, and replenish the earth," both by precept and example, especially by example. The Catholic clergy have even been rashly accused of promoting marriage and multiplication in the sister kingdom of Ireland. No religious sect in this kingdom among the many, however eccentric, advances claims to sanctity on the grounds of asceticism: some have erred in the other direction. Milton and the poets have written in the same sense. Euler, on mathematical considerations, had shown how rapidly men can multiply and how it is quite possible that the millions of the population of the earth might have sprung from one pair; and economic writers had dwelt on the connexion between population and subsistence; but to Malthus belongs the merit of having established by an elaborate statistical induction, the law that population grows naturally at rates in geometrical progression. This principle deserves to be held as a discovery. The great Naturalist of the age recognizes the generality of the law, and, extending it to the whole organic kingdom, bases mainly on the resulting struggle for existence his doctrine of the development of the infinite variety of forms of living nature. It applies to nations. A very different use was immediately made of the doctrine by Malthus and his followers: they ascribed—as if that
problem were so simple—the misery of mankind to this propensity to multiply in numbers beyond all bounds; and in fact it is very easy to prove that even by doubling slowly, not only subsistence will be outstripped, but that this earth, nay, the whole solar system, in the end will be covered by human beings, or by any other beings increasing by the same law. The absurdity of the reduction is sufficient to show that the law has evident limitations, and that true policy consists in establishing a just balance between the multiplying force and existing obstacles in England. Its fruitfulness leads to incidental evils, but without this exhaustless store of recuperative energy the English race would now have no existence. It could not have survived the dangers and disasters of its infancy. It could never out of a handful of wandering Celts or a few shiploads of Angles and Saxons have grown into a great power: It could never have established in its cities all the industrial arts; it could never have peopled a portion of the North American continent; it could never have covered the seas with its ships, and brought all the world into intercourse by commerce; it could never have shed over the ages the light of its civilization, discoveries inventions, arts, and literature. The population of the United Kingdom in the middle of the year 1801, when the first Census of Great Britain was taken, amounted to about 16,302,410. There was a scarcity, approaching famine, in the preceding year, and the mortality was high; population was even then pressing upon subsistence, and this policy of restraint of population would of course have led rather to reduction than to increase of numbers to be fed. The people adopted a different policy; and in 1871 the pressure on subsistence is less than it was in 1801; the numbers enumerated are 31,817,108; they are increasing still, and the products they create increase faster than their numbers. The mighty ship is now freighted with a cargo of infinite worth; it is driven by complex and potent mechanism; its consumption of force is enormous and it carries millions instead of thousands of souls; but in the hands of the "Lords and Commons of England, who consider what nation it is whereof they are, and whereof they are the governors," she still holds on her course as hitherto under the favour of Heaven.2
The rate of increase of population directly depends on two other rates, the birth rate and the rate of mortality; it is the difference between these two rates, both of which are under such a degree of control as enables educated nations either to augment or to Diminish their numbers. Thus in a kingdom where to 1,000 living 35 are born, 22 die annually, the rate of natural increase is 13, and the birth rate remaining constant, this rate of increase varies as the rate of mortality rises above or falls below 22; so it is the rate of mortality remain constant, the rate of increase varies as the birth-rate rises above or falls below 35. The process either way is accelerated or retarded according these rates operate in the same or in opposite directions. The birth-rate is necessarily limited by human fertility, but there is no limit to which it cannot be reduced; upon the other band the death-rate cannot be diminished below a certain figure, but it may be raised to an indefinite extent. So by the play of these inlets and outlets of life there are several ways in which races of men are extinguished; and thousands, of races have been extinguished; not only petty savage tribes, but the peoples of mighty empires; while no nation known has increased as rapidly as capital increases at a low rate of interest. Large numbers of every population at marriageable ages remain unmarried, and many couples apparently in sound health in every respect bear no children, yet the increase of population in geometrical progression is maintained nearly all over Europe; still without any increase in the rate of mortality the birth-rate has at least m one nation been so diminished as to check population not by the restraint from marriage which Malthus called "moral restraint," but by restraint of some other kind to which the qualifying adjective scarcely applies. In France the marriages have been kept up, but the average births to a marriage have now been reduced to 3.1; the birth rate in the last return (1853-68) is 26.35, which only exceeded the death-rate, 23.72, by 2.63 per 1,000. The natural annual increase was barely 0.26 per cent. In England the children born in wedlock to a marriage are 4.3, the birth-rate is sustained at 35, and the mortality rate is 23 per 1,000. A healthy nation sends out annual swarms of emigrants and their number in the actual state of the world regulates naturally the population of the country of their birth. The population of the United Kingdom is still increasing at the natural rate of 1,173 a day; of whom 705 swell the population at home, 468 emigrate. In the last 20 years the nation has strengthened itself by adding four millions to it numbers, and in the same time has sent out almost as many more millions to the British colonies and to the United States of British origin, where they are multiplying as rapidly as they did at home. That is still the policy of the English race, and it appears to succeed. Man creates the materials of his life; and the millions of acres of fertile land in the new world call for hands to gather the varied harvests they yield to modern industry. Grain is brought to our shores, where it is sold with a profit., from countries so remote as. California and Australia, by the skill and enterprise of commerce; meat and animal products will no doubt in the end be, by the aid of chemistry, brought to England from the other hemisphere, as they are brought now from the distant countries of Europe. A glance at the annexed tables, which we have been able to add by the courtesy of the Statistical Department of the Board of Trade, will show how much the quantities of food of every kind imported into the United Kingdom have increased since the last Census was taken. And not only has the quantity of food been imported to an increased extent but the various staples of industry, especially wool and metals. *
Average of the 3 years 1867-69, the facts for 1870 not being available. QUANTITIES of the under-mentioned ARTICLES of FOOD IMPORTED into the UNITED KINGDOM. QUANTITIES of the under-mentioned ARTICLES (paying Import Duty in 1870) RETAINED for HOME CONSUMPTION in the UNITED KINGDOM. The working power of the country has been increased, since the Census of 1861 was taken, to an incredible extent by the machines, tools, and engines which the ingenuity of Whitworth, Armstrong, and other able men have placed in the hands of masters of matchless energy and workmen of great aptitude. Railways and telegraphs have increased the efficiency of all the forces of which the population disposes. The prodigious mechanical and chemical powers at work in the steam engines and 1858-60 to 1867-9 rose from 72,343,704 tons to 105,023,065 tons. The explosive forces under control have also been multiplied; and the iron ships, torpedoes, guns, and arms of prime excellence have increased the means of defending the wealth credit, and life of the nation, now consisting of thirty-two millions. The increase of ships of every description, and of men to be trained to man them, is growing every year of more importance; for as these islands, populous as great cities in comparison with their territory, will every year require in proportion more of their food, and of the raw materials of industry from abroad, it is England's duty not only to hold good, as she can well do, her first line of encircling naval defences but her maritime power on the seas, of which, when her population was smaller than it is now, her dauntless mariners won the dominion. 1
Jeremy Taylor, Sermon on Marriage Ring. 2
We may venture in 1871 to quote the passage written by Milton in 1644 as applicable to these as it was to those times:— "Lords and commons of England, consider what nation it is whereof ye are, and whereof ye are the governors; a nation not slow and dull, but of a quick, ingenious, and piercing sprit; acute to invent, subtle and sinewy to discourse, not beneath the reach of any point the highest that human capacity can soar to * * * Yet that which is above all this, the favour and the love of Heaven, we have great argument to think in a peculiar manner propitious and propending to us."—Areopagitica.
IX. THE UNITED KINGDOM.
1. POPULATION.
—
Area in Acres.
Population on April 3d, 1871.
Proportion
per Cent. of
the Population
residing in
the several
parts of the
Kingdom.Persons.
Males.
Females.
UNITED KINGDOM
77,513,585
31,817,108
15,549,271
16,267,837
100.0
ENGLAND
32,590,397
21,487,688
10,437,053
11,050,635
67 .7
WALES
4,734,486
1,216,420
603,350
613,070
3 .8
SCOTLAND
19,639,377
3,358,613
1,601,633
1,756,980
10 .6
IRELAND
20,322,641
5,402,759
2,634,123
2,768,636
17 .0
ISLE OF MAN
180,000
53,867
25,691
28,170
. 2
CHANNEL ISLANDS
46,684
90,563
40,223
50,340
. 3
ARMY, NAVY, and MER-
CHANT SEAMEN ABROAD—
207,198
207,198
—
0.6
—
Population on April 3d, 1871.
Persons.
Males.
Females.
UNITED KINGDOM:
including
Islands in British Seas, and Army, Navy, and Merchant Seamen Abroad
31,817,108
15,549,271
16,267,837
UNITED KINGDOM:
including
Islands in British Seas, but excluding Army, Navy, and Merchant Sea men Abroad
31,609,910
15,342,073
16,267,837
UNITED KINGDOM:
excluding
Islands in British Seas, and Army, Navy, and Merchant Seamen Abroad
31,465,480
15,276,159
16,189,321
Middle of Years.
Persons.
Males.
Females.
1851
27,764,034
13,656,998
14,107,036
1861
29,358,927
14,397,427
14,961,500
1871
31,883,564
15,581,093
16,302,471
Decennial Increase.
1851-1861
1,594,893
740,429
854,464
1861-1871
2,524,637
1,183,666
1,340,971
Decennial Rates of Increase (per Cent.)
1851-1861
5.74
5.42
6.06
1861-1871
8.60
8.22
8.96
Annual Rates of Increase (per Cent.)
1851-1861
0.56
0.53
0.59
1861-1871
0.83
0.79
0.86
2. SEXES.
—
Males.
Females.
Excess of Males.
Australia (1861), exclusive of Tasmania
952,578
732,771
219,807
North American Colonies (1861) exclusive of Vancouver's Island
1,701,982
1,603,890
98,092
United States (1860)
13,868,460
13,133,031
735,429
Excess of males in the Colonies and in the United States (1860 or 1861)
1,053,328
3. EMIGRATION.
in the ten years 1851-61 was
2,054,578
in the ten years 1861-71 was
1,674,594
Decrease in the Emigration
379,984
4. NATURAL INCREASE.
—
Enumerated
population
1861.Registered
Births,
1861-70.Registered
Deaths,
1861-70.Emigration,
1861-70.Population,
1871,
estimated
from the
Excess of
Births over
Deaths in
Ten Years
1861-70
less recorded
Emigration.Enumerated
Population,
1871.Difference
between
enumerated
Population,
1871,
and the
Population,
estimated
by the
foregoing
Method.Cols. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
UNITED KINGDOM
28,927,485
10,083,680
6,414,106
1,674,594
30,922,465
31,465,480
543,015
ENGLAND AND WALES
20,066,224
7,499,527
4,794,714
649,742
22,121,295
22,704,108
582,813
SCOTLAND
3,062,294
1,121,321
705,530
158,226
3,319,859
3,358,613
38,754
IRELAND
5,798,967
1,462,832*
913,862*
866,626
5,481,311
5,402,759
-78,552
BIRTHRATE and DEATHRATE, 1861-1671.—
Mean
Enumerated
Population,
1861-1871.Average
Annual Births,
1861-1870.Average
Annual Deaths,
1861-1870.Mean Annual
Birth-rate per
1,000,
1861-1870.Mean Annual
Death-rate per
1,000,
1861-1870. UNITED KINGDOM
30,196,483
1,008,368
641,411
33.39
21.24
ENGLAND AND WALES
21,385,166
749,953
479,472
35.07
22.42
SCOTLAND
3,210,454
112,132
70,553
34.93
21.98
IRELAND
5,600,863
146,283
91,386
26.12
16.32
5. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION; PERIODS OF DOUBLING.
6. LAWS OF POPULATION.
—
Average of 3 years,
1858-60.Average of 3 years,
1868-70.Increase per Cent.
TOTAL VALUE of MERCHANDISE IMPORTED into the United Kingdom
£184,765,687
297,738,837
61
TOTAL VALUE of BRITISH PRODUCE EXPORTED from the United Kingdom
£127,637,171
£189,757,584
49
TOTAL TONNAGE of REGISTERED VESSELS employed in the HOME and FOREIGN TRADE of the United Kingdom
4,282,030 Tons.
5,544,282 Tons.
29
TOTAL VALUE of COAL and METALS produced in the United Kingdom
£31,595,874
£42,417,837*
34
TOTAL AMOUNT RECIEVED by SAVING BANKS (Post Office and Ordinary) in the United Kingdom
£8,800,806
£13,558,055
54
ARTICLES
Average of 3 years,
1858-60.Average of 3 years,
1868-70.Increase per Cent.
CATTLE
Head
344,843
759,984
120
MEAT:—
Beef
Cwts.
216,790
230,030
6
Bacon
"
210,014
648,495
208
Pork
"
142,140
199,750
41
FISH
Cwts
300,814
625,459
107
CORN:—
Wheat
Cwts.
20,400,754
33,745,608
65
Wheat Flour
"
4,090,224
4,432,829
8
Other kinds
"
18,913,672
31,833,465
68
RICE
Qrs.
2,238,028
4,782,320
113
POTATOES
Cwts.
957,208
1,491,189
56
BUTTER
Cwts.
551,114
1,171,946
113
LARD
Cwts.
137,665
236,973
72
CHEESE
Cwts.
451,306
964,616
113
EGGS
No.
150,337,133
418,994,640
178
ARTICLES.
Average of 3 years,
1858-60.Average of 3 years,
1868-70.Increase per Cent.
COFFEE
Lbs.
35,011,923
29,808,830
(15 Decrease.)
COCOA
Lbs.
3,034,957
5,657,209
86
TEA
Lbs.
75,438,580
112,054,302
48
SUGAR
Cwts.
9,484,453
12,849,160
35
SPIRITS
Galls.
5,012,295
8,337,006
66
WINE
Galls.
6,587,751
14,958,534
127